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Hindsight 20/20 Trading


Sorry, had a hard time expressing this one. Be much easier in a classroom setting. Also, I didn't mention but the same applies for buying on the way up. When I said you would have bot back the 50 shares at $580, you could have done a full reversal and bot 150 shares, leaving you long 100. You would have held thru $600 the 1st time and sold when AAPL was coming back down thru it. (from $622 to $599.99)

  • Aaron_healy

    i am aaron healy fom derry and i what to be a spy xx

  • BadCop_NoDonuts

    Didn’t expect to see AAPL down today. Normally, I would jump on this and buy calls. But your 4-28 video here would seem to advocate waiting for it to drop below $575 (current weekly OI chart) and then initiate a long position when it crosses back over $575 moving up. If I have this right, is there a level below $575 you are waiting for, or even just $574.80 is good enough?

    • Yeah that’s right. You could buy near $575 before it possibly goes to <$574. Or you can make this even higher probability of just waiting to see what happens at $575 and if goes to $570, you don't do anything until comes back up.

      Now, where I 1st started using the OI is for selling options because you never know if it is going to even hit $575. The only way to profit from that is selling options. So I would either sell puts or put spread on the 98% level or higher if want more risk.

      Few different ways to play it. Over time you will get a hang of it.

  • Jeff

    Thanks Travis. Great video. For anyone confused the first time…watch it again! Question is – Could you set up a historical database with your Weekly and Mothly OI charts? Ie, we input a date and link to the weekly or mothly OI chart you had posted for that day. Your charts are nice with both sides superimposed on a single page, instead of TDA’s volume widget.

  • google

    pretty cool. Appreciate the effort. Do you update your AAPLPain weekly and monthly graphs as the OI changes?

  • Ted S.

    Does it make any difference when the OI is virtually the same for Calls and Puts at the same strike, such as the current weekly 600; how do you know which way it is going to push if it hits 600 if they are at parity?

    • It does matter, but you hardly ever have that happen. It’s pretty unique. What will tend to happen is what you had Friday, it gets locked to the $600 +/- strike. So in this case you would just step away and not really use as buy/sell point. There will be many more high probability set-up. No need to take a position just cause.

  • Jdrizzo89

    1) start day with long position, goes to/slightly past 635 means SELL and take profit before it gets pushed back down

    2) start day with short position, goes to or past 610, COVER

    3) No position, goes past up to 644, initiate short once momentum pushes it down to/past 635

    4) No position, goes to 610 or past, on way back up once crosses 610 buy again

    all correct?? thanks

    • Yeah, really a few different ways to play it. Depends on what type of market we are in.

      1) correct or can wait and see if it goes past $635. If it does just keep holding and sell whenever happy or if heads back down sell at $635.

      2) same answer as 1)

      Overall say AAPL is $620 and you have no position, you can either buy at $610 when 1st hits it, or you can increase your probability of not having a paper loss by — buying if it dips below $610, then comes back thru it.

  • that was actually very clear. Thanks again.

  • Jon

    Are those open interest for next week? I love your analysis.

    • Hey Jon,

      No those were all from 4/10-4/20 time frame. It was just going over past data. What one ‘could’ have done. I always get blinded by the fundies and the truth so I didn’t short the stock but bot at $580 instead.

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