80% Probability Range $xxx-$xxx
96% Probability Range $xxx-$xxx My Take on 96%: $xxx-$xxx
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12/14/13 – No probabilities as the monthly is becoming less foreshadowing.
10/19/13 – See 08/19/13 note.
09/20/13 – That $500 strike will give you a good buying opportunity going into the Christmas season. Monthly expiry is prior to earnings. Between the $500 strike and rumors of how disastrous earnings are going to be due to x, y and z, this pressure will give you a good entry position (or 1/x on expiry and 1/x after ER).
08/19/13 – Not going to give a probability range until the week of expiration. With 5 consecutive weekly option series, the range can change drastically.
08/13/13 – With today’s news, in no way are options going to influence the stock.
07/21/13 - Probabilities not tracked due to event/earnings.
07/15/13 – Added “ALT PAIN” page.
05/19/13 – $500 calls are at 68K making the scale too difficult to read lower strikes. I moved the scale down and only noted $500 call/put OI.
04/21/13 – Probabilities not tracked due to earnings event.
04/18/13 – No reason to show lower than $400 puts. There isn’t anything down there. AAPL is the only stock that forgets to build puts.
04/17/13 – Volume or sell volume way too big for options to help very much.
04/14/13 – $400 is this the highest put OI along with $500 calls. I used $430 for the 80% range all month so am sticking with it. Just to note, it’s not the actual highest OI.
03/13/13 – See note from 03/05/13.
03/07/13 – Like an Octopus: devouring another sea creature. Calls are the Octopi with puts & Apple shareholders being, well, you know.
03/05/13 (pm) $400 will become the highest put OI next week.
01/20/13 – Due to event (Apple’s earnings), probabilities are not tracked.
01/14/13 – As you can see, negative rumors tend to be perfectly timed. The options market is pointing towards a close near $500. Let’s say $500-$520. History has shown, once we get thru this ex-LEAPS expiry, the stock will move higher as selling pressure is relieved. (graph now zoomed in for better visual on ATM)
01/01/13 – I will bring back the probabilities starting next week.
12/09/12 – Due to the fiscal cliff and tax selling, I would not recommend selling weekly credit spreads. Apple has become excessively volatile as if events are taking place. Using OI becomes less reliable when events or excessive volatility appear. Until the fiscal cliff is resolved or the new year comes, I will not be tracking probabilities. I will still show the ranges, but they do not carry any probabilities.
I show 2 probability ranges, 80% and 98%. My take is on the right hand side. If it’s in green I think it will hold, if red I wouldn’t make a risk trade on that strike. This is just personal opinion to give people my thoughts. The 80% probability range uses the highest OI and the 98% goes 1 strike OTM or more. *Note: I always recommend using the 98% range only for risk trades.
General - This is an OI/Max Pain graph. It uses open interest (OI) to determine a max pain range. The arrow on the put side is for the “no lower than” price, the arrow on the calls is the “no higher than” price. Using an OI/Max Pain strategy helps to determine where AAPL will NOT be. An OI graph has many uses; use it to sell options, buy/sell points or just plain ease your mind. Using an exact Max Pain strike is not all that accurate, using a range is. This is the reason you will not find an exact strike figure on this site.
(Historical Posts on “Misc” page)