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04/27/14 - Using a calculation for the ranges this week instead of open interest as there are too many option trades that were earnings only plays.
11/20/13 - $510 will become the highest put OI by Friday.
10/19/13 - Probabilities not tracked due to event week. I wouldn't be concerned with the $500 strike as getting over it is the most important and difficult. There is a high probability AAPL moves higher once it passed the $500 strike.
07/21/13 - Probabilities not tracked due to event/earnings.
06/26/13 - Arrow over the highest OI. 80% probability staying the same as it was from Sunday.
06/09/13 - No probabilities as of now due to WWDC event.
06/06/13 (pm) Moved the put arrow over the highest OI strike but leaving the $435 range steady as it was there since Sunday night.
04/30/12 - The OI keeps moving up as Apple moves up. This is a bullish sign. I'm going to leave the $450 96% range as is (since Sunday) The buyback/cash plans have put a bottom in the stock. Apple is now in the process of building a new trading range.
04/21/13 - Apple's earnings are on Tuesday. Open Interest probability is not tracked due to event.
03/28/13 - This is the weekend real money is expecting some news. Unless AAPL announces cash plans this weekend, all those div speculators are about to get crushed.
03/19/13 (pm) Nice to see the call side move up for a change (the $460's were 9K today). The call strikes have been coming down for 5 months straight, so this is a nice change.
02/07/13 (pm) - Aapl_Pain has my take in neutral, meaning no opinion/play. I am leaving the arrow on the $460 strike for transparency only. $460 has been rejected all week, including today. A grey swan swooped in today, doing longs a favor, possibly getting us out of this options purgatory. Today you had an unforeseen event. Tomorrow's close will heavily depend on natural buyers and sellers. (a willing buyer/seller only exists in the futures market)
02/06/13 (pm) - The reason you see the $400-$445 calls flatlined is due to the dividend today. All those calls were exercised. -- Leaving $440 puts as the 80% range, if sold $440's, no reason to roll up.
02/04/13 (pm) - I was watching the Super Bowl last night when updating the site. I'm not sure why I didn't allow for very much volatility on the 98% range. Backed off to a more appropriate strike.
01/20/13 - Due to event (Apple's earnings), probabilities are not tracked.
01/01/13 - Probabilities will be brought back next week.
12/09/12 - Due to the fiscal cliff and tax selling, I would not recommend selling weekly credit spreads. Apple has become excessively volatile as if events are taking place. Using OI becomes less reliable when events or excessive volatility appear. Until the fiscal cliff is resolved or the new year comes, I will not be tracking probabilities. I will still show the ranges, but they do not carry any probabilities.
12/07/12 - (am) Definitely not a normal OI graph. -- Due to NFP numbers, I would keep using the $590 call OI from earlier this week. No reason to use the $560 just for 1 day. If sold a call spread or covered call, take your gain and let expire worthless.
12/05/12 (pm) In no way can options slow pure liquidation. Options are no match for anomalies or overwhelming buying or selling. Today you had tax selling part deux as AAPL is still up 33% YTD, mixed with margin calls, and the street finally discovering Apple will keep its cash in the stock. I am leaving the 98% put range be for transparency. I'm not sure if AAPL will close above it or not. If you are interested in starting a Cr put spread, I'd look to the $500 or $510 strike. -- In my opinion there shouldn't be any angst if you have an investment in AAPL. The reason is, you know why the stock is selling off. It's market mechanics, not an actual Apple concern. Once the mechanical selling is done, the stock will rebound to a somewhat fair market value.
12/04/12 - How to trade Aapl_pain style? High probability; buy or sell near/at the highest put/call OI. Want even higher probability? You only buy/sell when AAPL breaches and comes back thru. Example: If AAPL dropped to $565 tomorrow, you don't buy until it breaks thru $570 going to the upside.
11/22/12 - See 11/19/12 note -- This is a rare event to have the puts build up. I'm not sure if the $500's were bot or sold but it doesn't matter (will find out). If they were sold it wouldn't be retail money but commercial wanting to get long AAPL. There is only half a day left until these options expire and this pattern goes away. That's ok, the main takeaway is we just saw a huge sentiment change in the options.
11/21/12 (am) As a bull, the current put bias is a great thing to see.
11/19/12 (pm) - The put side never really had a big build up during this latest sell-off. I was saying last week, retailers along with everyone else had been selling calls. I would say this is the reason we did not see a build in puts like the past. I had mentioned this can actually be bullish, which brings me to my next observation. I think last/this week setup a "frames" type situation without the put build up for the aforementioned reason and calls overshot to the downside. Due to this situation I wouldn't give the $550 calls a lot of weight, but try to move out towards the $580 area in anticipation of a change. If the bulk of $550's were initiated STO covered calls, they will not cause selling pressure like you are used to seeing. This is why I do not have the 80% range on the highest call OI. If you like to use the highest OI at all times,you know where they stand.
11/19/12 (am) I would wait until tonight and reassess the 98% call side.
I show 2 probability ranges, 80% and 98%. My take is on the right hand side. If it’s in green I think it will hold, if red I wouldn’t make a risk trade on that strike. This is just personal opinion to give people my thoughts. The 80% probability range uses the highest OI and the 98% goes 1 strike OTM or more. *Note: I always recommend using the 98% range or better for risk trades.
General - This is an OI/Max Pain graph. It uses open interest (OI) to determine a max pain range. The arrow on the put side is for the “no lower than” price, the arrow on the calls is the “no higher than” price. Using an OI/Max Pain strategy helps to determine where AAPL will NOT be. An OI graph has many uses; use it to sell options, buy/sell points or just plain ease your mind. Using an exact Max Pain strike is not all that accurate, using a range is. This is the reason you will not find an exact strike figure on this site.