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Cash Ratio

Screen Shot 2014-06-03 at 4.21.34 PM 

 

04/26/13 - On Wednesday, Apple blew out the recession low -- cash valuation of 2.66. Wednesdays low was $385.10 or 2.56 x's cash.

 

01/23/13 - $579.00 is placed @ 4.00x's. If Apple doesn't reach $579 over the next 91 days it will make the great recession...

 

10/30/12 - Using last quarters low-to-high ratio gives AAPL a range of $588.24 - $728.92 over the next 91 days. Day 1 began 10/26/12. If you do not like last quarters facts, feel free to use any ratio you like, just don't forget the constant of $127.88.

 

07/25/12 - The recent low of 4.18 and last quarters high of 5.32, produces a range of $517 - $658. Using last  quarters range gives a low/high of $553/$658. So far the trend is still intact. The only correlation to stock price is cash. As long as cash rises, so will the stock.

 

04/25/12 - The downside ratio looks to be finding a bottom in the lower 4's. I think this is due to the $100B headline that finally gained traction. If you use a recent low of 4.18 and a high of 6.21 produces a range of $487.38 - $724.09. Using the 6.38 high gets us $743.91 over the next 3 months.

 

01/28/12 - This is a graph of Apple's cash to share price ratio. I have data on pre 2008 but the ratio is much higher; 7-10 area. Using this data we can see AAPL trades around 5x's its cash per share. A recent high of 5.2 and low of 4.08, would equate to a share price range of $422.93 - $539.02 over the next 3 months. --- The RH scale is cash, LH scale is ratio.

  • Joe

    I am confused on: how this ratio is calculated. And how to read chart/know share price range. Maybe one of those youtube videos you used to do! those are awesome. Thanks for all your info

    • Just take the stock price/cash per share. e.g, $630/123.77 = 5.09. AAPL is trading at 5.09 times cash per share. So back in July, when AAPL was $5xx, we knew it would hit at least 5x’s or $618.85.
      Black line is the highest ratio it hit during that period(91days) and orange is the lowest. We know it trades up and down of 5. So if you know the cash, you will know the mid-point AAPL will hit. As for the high/low, we just have to use history as best estimate.

      • Angel

        Travis — I want to make certain I am doing this correctly — stock price right now 632/123.77 = 5.11 so aapl is trading at 5.11 times cash per share = 632.46. Our range is as follows: 4.60 x 123.77 = 569.34 to 5.70 x 123.77 = 705.48

        • Angel

          sorry — could you please clarify how you arrive at $618.85 (mid-point) in the example above. Thanks!

          • $123.77 x5 = $618.85

          • Angel

            Of course — got it!

        • Correct. The low so far for this qtr was 570, high of 705. So AAPL will report cash holdings on 25th. Take $1xx cash per share x 5+/- = stock price during the 91 days following 10/25/12

      • peteo

        How does dividend & stock buy back effect this?

  • Al

    From where do you get the cash numbers? Oppenheimer said the following during the last earnings call “Turning to cash, our cash for short-term and long-term marketable
    securities totaled $117.2 billion at the end of the June quarter
    compared to $110 billion at the end of the March quarter, a sequential
    increase of $7 billion and about $81 billion of the cash was offshore at
    the end of the June quarter. Cash flow from operations was $10.2
    billion.”

    • The graph is cash per share.

      • Al

        Sorry, my fault if I can’t read a chart.

  • JTL

    Adding the 50 SMA would likely be revealing!

  • headedhigher

    Have you thought about putting an average cash ratio price on the graph? Perhaps a dotted red line running between the high’s and the low’s.

  • I can switch it, I was in a hurry to just put it out before going to watch the AFC/NFC championship games.

  • jediphish

    nice chart but why not trend time from left to right as you would with most other charts?

    • Rkefauver

      I agree, left to right would be easier to follow.