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09/25/12 – If you look at the SPY weekly, you will notice this week the open interest looks very different from the past few months. During this market melt-up the put OI has dominated calls. The calls at times were almost non-existent. That has made a major change this week. Now, notice the SPY price action. Since the SPY monthly still looks relatively typical with calls only slightly elevated, you need to take the SPY action week by week. A bulls best scenario is to have all that option premium disappear into thin air, running the SPY near the put side this week. You would then love to see 100K puts and 20K calls for next week. Again, take week by week, but more education is all. —To clarify, this doesn’t mean SPY will fall off a cliff this week, it says will have a hard time going up is all.


05/28/12 - Not sure if this is one of the few times excessive calls out of the blue is a good thing for bulls.

I do not have any stats on the SPY and OI/Max Pain. It is an ETF which brings in so many variables, opposed to a single stock. Regardless, I will put it up to show the OI data.

  • Jmlr

    Travis, confused by this chart. On TOS I show 109k OI puts on SPY on 11/4/12??

    • Not sure why TOS would have shown 109K OI, 78K is the correct number for 137 weekly SPY puts.

  • Teddo

    Isn’t it the accumulated OI that counts?

    • Martin_bartin

      What do you mean by “accumulated” OI? There is no such thing… OI is a snapshot. You are either short N options or you aren’t. What you were doesn’t matter. What matters are current paper profits, not past ones. This is precisely what OI underlines.

      • Mubaar2

        Plus these are weekly options, not much accumulating you can do.

  • Jeff

    “Normally that $145 $SPY OI would be a topping sign. Looked into it, came from 1 big trade so think we are ok”
    Travis – could you please explain in more detail what you meant with above twit? Still bullish on SPY? Just Bullish or very Bullish? Thanks!

    • Anytime you start to see people make overly bullish bets, then odds are you are going to come into a correction of some sort. On the monthly, that $145 calls, was mainly from a few big trades. So I think it was just 1 off, not market as a whole thinking this. I’m still neutral to bullish bias on SPY.

      • Jeff

        About these 145 positions what’s your guess about who initiated the trade – retail (buying calls) or smart money selling calls? or, do you think, could it even be the other way round…? Is there any way to tell? Thanks again!

  • Anonymous

    I agree. I’d be interested in seeing how well this works on the SPY. I’ll set up a spread sheet and follow it.

    • Theres lots of time when you wouldn’t want to do an iron condor, but only 1 side. either the put or call side. You will know because of the stock reaction, if it keeps running to one of the OI sides, then you want to do the other. If kinda hangs out in the middle, then iron condor is correct to use. Just takes time to get to know the stock. I only stick to AAPL because you need the option volume for this to work.

  • it would be cool if you did twitter of new posts, if you do how can i sign up. thanks

    • Ok, I’m on stocktwits but is twitter better you think? I can do that no problem. I love the twitter system.

  • Skipper1290

    great site…Can’t wait for S&P

  • Pete

    Nice improvements to the site Travis.


    • Anonymous

      This is actually not the official one, I’m still transfering from where I built it.